Stumpy’s short shots - RICK DREWER
NO matter what the time of any
and all football seasons, there
seems to be never-ending discussions,
more often than not,
concerning the significance and
influence of the annual AFL
draft.
Introduced in its present form
in 1981, the draft is an attempt
to even out the overall competition
by awarding high picks to
the teams finishing at the bottom
of the ladder in the previous year,
with the No.1draft pick being
awarded to the team finishing bottom,
for example, or an expansion
team in its first draft.
Much kudos is lauded upon
club recruitment officers and the
role they play in establishing team
lists, concerning who they eventually
rate and recommend when
their club gets to the selection
table. However, do we make too
much about the value of a high
draft pick?
Over the years, a number of
clubs, once their top-eight aspirations
have expired, have allegedly
been more interested in attaining
a low finishing place on the premiership
table, rather than winning
games of football, to receive
high draft picks.
But the real question remains:
how significant are these draft
picks in relation to future team
performance?
Since 1981, the list of number
one overall picks contains numerous
names that proved to be less
than household. Andrew Purser
(1982), Richard Lounder (1987),
Anthony Banik (1989) and more
recently Jack Watts (2008) and
Johnathon Patton (2011) are examples.
Forget the No.1 pick, what does
any draft ranking really predict?
May I suggest, next to nothing.
A classic example is Port Adelaide’s
pick No.71, in the 2006
draft, by name of Justin Westhoff.
Does pick 71 suggest a player is
destined to play 280 games, win a
John Cahill club best player award
at the age of 32, and AFL life
membership? Possibly not.
Only one first overall pick
has won a Brownlow Medal, the
Western Bulldogs’ Adam Cooney,
and two – Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
and Tom Boyd (Western
Bulldogs) – have won premiership
medallions.
Take last year’s 2020 AFL
All-Australian Team – the average
draft position of the team was
23.25. Not a very high pick average,
I suggest.
While there were 10 players
named who were taken in the top
10 of their respective draft year,
including Nic Naitanui and Christian
Petracca, both at No.2 and
Dusty Martin at No.3, what steals
do Harris Andrews (61), Lachie
Neale (58) and Luke Ryan (66)
represent?
Over the past 40 years of the
draft, it would appear, despite all
the fanfare surrounding its significance,
that there is little evidence
indicating that it is a reliable predictor
of who is going to be the
long-term consistently good players
in the AFL.
With hindsight, a wonderful
advantage, how would you feel
about selecting Jack Watts ahead
of Nic Naitanui? Not good.
The talent scouts don’t always
get it right, but they never let you
forget about the successful picks.
Have your say:
Contact Rick at
editor@bunyippress.com.au